The objective of this paper is to analyse role of forest industry in meeting energy and climate targets that aim to mitigating global change. Finland as an important forest industry country with the ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is selected to a target county. This study aims to present a plausible assessment of the future of the Finnish forest industry until 2035 based on literature and a scenario building approach. The focus is on energy use and fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The results suggest that electricity consumption will decrease, whereas electricity production will increase, which indicates that forest industry can provide more renewable electricity to the grid. Heat consumption may even increase as a result from building new biorefineries, but those mills can most probably meet their heat demand by combusting biofuels. Changes in forest industry’s direct fossil CO₂ emissions can reduce Finnish fossil CO₂ emissions 2─4% in comparison to 2018. Biofuels production is likely to rise, but the extent remains to be seen. It is concluded that the Finnish forest industry can contribute significantly to meeting national climate policy targets, and forest industry in general can play a role in mitigating global change. Additionally, it was found that development of the Finnish forest industry will probably be limited by the requirement for sustainable wood harvesting, which may also be a problem for other forest industry countries.

本文的目的是分析林业在实现旨在缓解全球变化的能源和气候目标中的作用。芬兰是一个重要的林业产业国家，其雄心勃勃的目标是到2035年实现碳中和。这项研究旨在根据文献和情景构建方法，对直到2035年芬兰森林产业的未来进行合理评估。重点是能源利用和化石二氧化碳（CO ₂）排放。结果表明，电力消耗将减少，而电力生产将增加，这表明林业可以为电网提供更多的可再生电力。建立新的生物精炼厂可能会增加热量消耗，但这些工厂很可能可以通过燃烧生物燃料来满足其热量需求。森林工业直接化石CO ₂排放量的变化可以减少芬兰的化石CO ₂排放量与2018年相比，排放量减少了2-4％。生物燃料产量可能会增加，但程度尚待观察。结论是，芬兰的林业产业可以为实现国家气候政策目标做出重要贡献，而林业产业总体上可以在缓解全球变化中发挥作用。另外，发现芬兰森林工业的发展可能会受到可持续采伐木材的要求的限制，这对于其他森林工业国家也可能是一个问题。