This paper describes a series of hindcast simulations of 17 tropical cyclones over the northwest shelf region of Australia. Tropical cyclone track and vortex details were obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology “Best Track” database. Wind fields were simulated using a dynamic boundary layer model referred to as the Kepert-Wang model. Surface wind and pressure fields were blended with background fields from the ERA-Interim dataset. These blended wind fields were then used as forcing for the WAVEWATCH III wave model to generate wave fields. Several different configurations of wave model source terms were trialled. Wind and wave models were validated against available observations from the Bureau of Meteorology and our industry partner. The mean absolute error for peak significant wave height (Hs) for all configurations was mostly less than 0.90 m, compared to a mean observed peak Hs of 4.8 m, and the bias was less than around 0.41 m. It was found that while in general the ST6 wave model source term physics package with NL3 non-linear interactions performs well overall, there is no single configuration that performs best for all 17 tropical cyclones.

本文介绍了澳大利亚西北大陆架地区17个热带气旋的一系列后预报模拟。热带气旋的轨道和涡旋细节从气象局“最佳轨道”数据库获得。使用称为Kepert-Wang模型的动态边界层模型模拟了风场。将表面风和压力场与ERA-Interim数据集中的背景场混合。然后将这些混合风场用作WAVEWATCH III波浪模型的强制，以生成波场。试用了波动模型源项的几种不同配置。根据气象局和我们的行业合作伙伴提供的观测结果，对风和风模型进行了验证。所有配置的峰值有效波高（Hs）的平均绝对误差大多小于0.90 m，与观测到的平均峰值Hs为4.8 m相比，偏差小于0.41 m左右。已发现，尽管通常具有NL3非线性相互作用的ST6波动模型源术语物理软件包总体上表现良好，但没有一种配置对所有17个热带气旋表现最佳。