This paper investigates the importance of real exchange rates on export volumes by estimating a panel SVAR model using quarterly unbalanced panel data from 21 emerging markets over the 2005:Q1-2018:Q4 period. Although the results suggest no conclusive evidence that real exchange rate shocks do affect the export volumes in our sample of emerging markets, the responses of export volume to real exchange rate shocks are heterogeneous across countries in which commodity exporter countries, on average, have a lower response of exports to the real exchange rate movements. Furthermore, we find that while the magnitude of response of the export volumes to exchange rate shocks is positively related to exchange rate volatility, the higher export market penetration ratio helps insulate the economy from real exchange rate shocks. Overall, our results carry broad policy implications indicating that policymakers need to pay attention to the exchange rate volatility of their countries and expand their export competition in the world trade.

本文通过使用 2005:Q1-2018:Q4 期间 21 个新兴市场的季度不平衡面板数据估计面板 SVAR 模型，研究实际汇率对出口量的重要性。尽管结果表明没有确凿的证据表明实际汇率冲击确实会影响我们新兴市场样本中的出口量，但出口量对实际汇率冲击的反应在不同国家之间是异质的，其中商品出口国的平均出口量较低出口对实际汇率变动的反应。此外，我们发现，虽然出口量对汇率冲击的反应幅度与汇率波动呈正相关，但较高的出口市场渗透率有助于使经济免受实际汇率冲击。全面的，