The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the tourism-growth relationship for Greece over the period 1977Q1-2020Q2. We find that the long-run relationship between tourism and output is positive and is characterized by a substantially faster adjustment of output after a negative shock than after a positive one. Using asymmetric error-correction model analysis the results show that the short-term adjustment path occurs through the level of output for negative deviations from the long-run equilibrium, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Linear quantile regression (QR) analysis indicates that the impact of tourism remains positive across the output distribution, but the effect is more pronounced at the lower quantiles of output while at the higher quantiles of output it becomes weaker and statistically insignificant. Furthermore, applying asymmetric QR analysis there is evidence that tourism growth exhibits an asymmetric impact on output growth. Our results have important policy implications, since the tourism-led growth hypothesis is a useful policy recommendation, but it should not be considered a panacea.

本文为1977Q1-2020Q2期间希腊的旅游业-增长关系提供了新的经验证据。我们发现，旅游业与产出之间的长期关系是积极的，其特征是负面冲击后的产出调整比正面冲击后的调整要快得多。使用非对称误差校正模型分析结果表明，短期调整路径是通过产出水平发生的，与长期均衡之间存在负偏差，从而支持了旅游业主导的增长假说。线性分位数回归（QR）分析表明，在整个产出分布中，旅游业的影响仍然是积极的，但是在较低的产出分位数下，旅游业的影响更为明显，而在较高的产出分位数下，旅游业的影响变得更弱，在统计上不显着。此外，应用不对称QR分析，有证据表明旅游业增长对产出增长表现出不对称的影响。我们的结果具有重要的政策含义，因为以旅游业为主导的增长假说是一项有用的政策建议，但不应被视为灵丹妙药。