Paleoseismological trenching was performed along the Düzce fault providing some preliminary insight about its seismogenic behavior. Dating was based on radiocarbon analysis of peat samples collected from the trenches and suggested seven earthquakes have occurred since 1740 BC. Integrating date constraints of events exposed in the trenches suggests a periodical earthquake recurrence model. According to a linear sequential event serial that has minimum misfit determined by considering the probability curve limits of the sample dates, the earthquake recurrence interval is between 384 and 460 years (or possibly between AD 394 and 400). A probability curve was also calculated for the date of the last earthquake (1999 Düzce earthquake) considering the probability distributions of sample dates based on the same event serial. This probability-distribution-based method, similarly, predicted that the 1999 Düzce earthquake occurred between 1933 and 2005 (±36 years) with a 68% probability. After this verification, using this method, it was estimated that the next earthquake along the Düzce fault has a 68% probability of occurring between 2328 and 2392. According to this calculation, the earthquake recurrence interval is about 391 ± 34 years with a 68% probability and the AD 967 historical earthquake likely ruptured the Düzce fault. Assuming an average slip of 350 cm (the average slip of the 1999 earthquake), the slip rate was estimated to be between 8.7 and 11.2 mm/a.

沿杜兹断层进行了古地震学的开挖，提供了有关其地震成因的初步见识。约会基于对从战the中收集的泥炭样品的放射性碳分析，表明自公元前1740年以来发生了7次地震。整合exposed沟中发生的事件的日期约束，可以得出周期性的地震复发模型。根据通过考虑采样日期的概率曲线限制确定的最小失配的线性顺序事件序列，地震复发间隔在384年至460年之间（或可能在AD 394至400年之间）。考虑到基于同一事件序列的采样日期的概率分布，还计算了上一次地震（1999年杜兹地震）日期的概率曲线。同样，这种基于概率分布的方法预测到1999年杜兹采地震发生在1933年至2005年之间（±36年），概率为68％。经过验证之后，使用这种方法，估计沿杜兹断层发生的下一次地震在2328至2392年之间发生的概率为68％。根据此计算，地震复发间隔约为391±34年，其中68％概率和公元967年的历史地震很可能使杜兹断层破裂。假设平均滑动量为350 cm（1999年地震的平均滑动量），则滑动率估计在8.7和11.2 mm / a之间。据估计，沿着杜兹切断裂的下一次地震在2328至2392年之间发生的概率为68％。根据此计算，地震复发间隔约为391±34年，概率为68％，很可能是公元967年的历史地震打破了杜兹切断层。假设平均滑动量为350厘米（1999年地震的平均滑动量），滑动率估计在8.7和11.2毫米/年之间。据估计，沿着杜兹切断裂的下一次地震在2328至2392年之间发生的概率为68％。根据此计算，地震复发间隔约为391±34年，概率为68％，很可能是公元967年的历史地震打破了杜兹切断层。假设平均滑动量为350 cm（1999年地震的平均滑动量），则滑动率估计在8.7和11.2 mm / a之间。