This study focuses on the links between food production and greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The analysis relies on two sets of simulations of AROPAj, a supply-side model of EU agriculture: (i) a carbon price affecting agricultural GHG emissions (from 0 to 200 EUR/tCO₂eq), and (ii) a lower limit on the net quantity of food calories provided by EU agriculture (200 to 450 Mt soft wheat equivalent). The model is calibrated on six annual datasets 2007–2012. The results show that a moderate increase in the price of carbon would lead to an increase in total areas and outputs of crops. Animal production decreases over the explored range of carbon price. At 200 EUR/tCO₂eq, the reduction in GHG emissions ranges from 25 to 35% depending on the year of calibration. The results also show that current net calorie production from food can be more than doubled, while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 10–15%. The compatibility between a reduction in GHG emissions and an increase in food calorie production relies on substantial changes in animal production and feed, which implies significant variations in grassland and fallow land. These effects are contrasted between the regions of the EU.

这项研究的重点是欧盟食品生产与温室气体排放之间的联系。该分析基于欧盟农业的供应方模型AROPAj的两套模拟：（i）影响农业温室气体排放的碳价（从0到200 EUR / tCO ₂当量），以及（ii）欧盟农业提供的食物卡路里的净含量（相当于200到450吨软质小麦）。该模型在2007-2012年的六个年度数据集上进行了校准。结果表明，碳价的适度上涨将导致农作物总面积和产量增加。在探索的碳价范围内，动物产量下降。在200 EUR / tCO ₂例如，根据校准年份的不同，温室气体排放量的减少范围为25％至35％。结果还表明，目前食物中的净卡路里产量可以增加一倍以上，同时可以减少10-15％的温室气体排放。减少温室气体排放与增加食品卡路里产量之间的相容性取决于动物生产和饲料的重大变化，这意味着草原和休耕地的显着变化。这些影响在欧盟各地区之间形成对比。