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Managing economic growth through tourism: Does volatility of tourism matter?
DECISION Pub Date : 2021-03-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s40622-020-00259-1
Muhammad Tariq Majeed , Maria Mazhar

Tourism is one of the fast growing industries but being threatened by several challenges making it highly vulnerable. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of tourism and its uncertainty on economic growth. The analysis is carried out by using the panel of 155 counties and for the different income groups over the period 1971–2017. Initially, basic panel data approaches such as ordinary least squares, fixed and random effects models were utilized for estimation. The results confirm that international tourism help in achieving high economic growth, however, its uncertainty deter the growth effects. Moreover, the results of Granger causality confirm the bidirectional causality between tourism, tourism volatility and economic growth providing an evidence of endogeneity problem. Hence, to address this issue, system GMM estimator is used by introducing the instruments in economic growth model and the results of system GMM also confirm fixed and random effects findings. Further, the results for different income groups indicate the similar impact of tourism and its volatility on economic growth of low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). The findings for upper income groups are, however, insignificant signaling that growth contribution of tourism and its volatility is not significant in these economies. The impulse response function highlights that response of economic growth to tourism and its volatility varies depending upon the income groups. Variance decomposition analysis, on the other hand, shows that in all income groups the influence of tourism and its volatility is strong in the long run. Based on findings, it is suggested that government should provide tourism facilities to ensure sustainable tourism for gaining high economic benefits mainly in LICs and MICs.



中文翻译:

通过旅游业管理经济增长:旅游业的波动性很重要吗?

旅游业是快速发展的行业之一,但受到诸多挑战的威胁,使其高度脆弱。因此,本研究调查了旅游业及其不确定性对经济增长的影响。通过使用155个县的小组以及1971-2017年期间不同收入类别的小组进行分析。最初,使用基本面板数据方法(例如普通最小二乘法,固定效应和随机效应模型)进行估算。结果证实,国际旅游业有助于实现高经济增长,但是,其不确定性阻碍了经济增长的作用。此外,格兰杰因果关系的结果证实了旅游业,旅游业的动荡性与经济增长之间的双向因果关系,为内生性问题提供了证据。因此,为了解决这个问题,通过将工具引入经济增长模型中,可以使用系统GMM估计量,并且系统GMM的结果还可以确认固定效应和随机效应的发现。此外,不同收入组的结果表明旅游业及其波动性对低收入国家(LIC)和中等收入国家(MIC)的经济增长具有类似的影响。但是,针对高收入人群的调查结果微不足道,表明在这些经济体中,旅游业的增长贡献及其波动性并不显着。冲动响应函数突出表明,经济增长对旅游业及其波动的响应取决于收入群体。另一方面,方差分解分析表明,从长远来看,在所有收入群体中,旅游业及其波动性的影响都很大。根据调查结果,

更新日期:2021-03-25
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