ABSTRACT

Renewable energy transition is one of the keys to mitigating climate change. While attention has been given to various economic, institutional, technological, and sociocultural barriers to this transition, it is unclear how acute interstate conflict shadowed by geopolitical forces shapes the deployment of renewables. The literature is split between those who speculate that conflict conditions discourage renewable energy proliferation and their critics. This ambiguity is surprising, since renewable energy is often suggested as a panacea for many conflict and post-conflict areas with dysfunctional centralised electricity systems. A systematic assessment of these competing hypotheses is challenging because of the absence of reliable data in fragile states and areas. This study is the first to use remote sensing to examine the temporal and spatial diffusion of renewables in the Gaza Strip against the backdrop of conflict conditions with Israel. It finds that Gaza has become a renewable energy leader despite conflict conditions exacerbated by deep poverty. The balance between discouraging and encouraging factors rests on different variables: the impact of the conflict on the free movement of labour, goods, and fuel, the intensity of the conflict, the role of economies of scale, opportunity costs, and alternative energy production costs.

摘要

可再生能源转型是缓解气候变化的关键之一。虽然这种转变的各种经济、制度、技术和社会文化障碍受到了关注，但尚不清楚地缘政治力量阴影下的严重国家间冲突如何影响可再生能源的部署。那些推测冲突条件会阻碍可再生能源扩散的人和他们的批评者之间存在分歧。这种模糊性令人惊讶，因为可再生能源通常被认为是许多集中电力系统功能失调的冲突和冲突后地区的灵丹妙药。由于缺乏脆弱国家和地区的可靠数据，对这些相互竞争的假设进行系统评估具有挑战性。这项研究是首次使用遥感来检查加沙地带可再生能源在与以色列发生冲突的背景下的时空扩散。报告发现，尽管极度贫困加剧了冲突状况，但加沙已成为可再生能源的领导者。令人沮丧和令人鼓舞的因素之间的平衡取决于不同的变量：冲突对劳动力、货物和燃料自由流动的影响、冲突的强度、规模经济的作用、机会成本和替代能源生产成本.