Climate is one of the components of terroir that most influences grape growth and development. Vines might suffer significant impacts under climate change, although they can be different depending on the variety and location. The aim of this study was to analyze vine phenology and grape composition variability related to weather conditions in La Mancha Designation of Origin, in Spain, and potential changes caused by climate change. The research focuses on the Tempranillo and Chardonnay varieties. Phenological dates and grape composition at ripening were evaluated for the period 2000–2019 and related to climatic variables. This information was used to project the potential variations under different emission scenarios (Representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. An advance in phenology is projected under climate change, for the two varieties, in agreement with that observed in years with different weather conditions. The advance for 2050 could be of 6, 11, 9, and 8 days for Tempranillo and 4, 9, 9, and 10 days for Chardonnay, respectively, for bud break, flowering, veraison, and maturity under the RCP4.5 scenario, and up to 50% higher under the PCP8.5 scenario. This advance in the phenological timing will imply ripening under warmer conditions, which could affect grape quality. A decrease in titratable acidity in both varieties is projected due to the increasing temperatures, which would have negative implications for the two varieties, and anthocyanin concentrations in Tempranillo are projected to suffer changes due to variations in temperature and in water deficits. The research presents a novelty for La Mancha DO, where there is no previous analysis in this respect. This is the first study in this vine-growing region in which projections are made on the potential changes for aforementioned vine cultivars, whose response is analyzed for expected warmer conditions in relation to those observed in cooler areas.

气候是最能影响葡萄生长发育的风土成分之一。葡萄藤可能会在气候变化下遭受重大影响，尽管它们可能因品种和位置而异。这项研究的目的是分析与西班牙拉曼查原产地的天气状况有关的葡萄树物候和葡萄成分变异性，以及气候变化引起的潜在变化。该研究集中在Tempranillo和Chardonnay品种上。对2000–2019年期间的物候日期和葡萄组成进行了评估，并与气候变量相关。该信息用于预测2050年和2070年不同排放情景（代表性浓度途径RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的潜在变化。预计在气候变化下，这两个品种的物候学将有所进步，这与在不同天气条件下多年所观察到的情况一致。在RCP4.5方案下，对于Tempranillo而言，到2050年的提前期可能分别为Tempranillo的第6天，第11天，第9天和第8天，而对于霞多丽的则分别为第4天，第9天，第9天和第10天，在PCP8.5方案下最高可提高50％。物候时机的这种进步将意味着在温暖的条件下成熟，这可能会影响葡萄的品质。预计由于温度升高，两个品种的可滴定酸度会降低，这将对两个品种产生负面影响，而Tempranillo中的花色苷浓度预计会因温度和水分亏缺而发生变化。该研究为La Mancha DO提出了一种新颖性，在这方面没有先前的分析。这是在该葡萄种植区的第一项研究，其中对上述葡萄品种的潜在变化进行了预测，并针对预期的较温暖地区与较凉爽地区所观察到的条件进行了分析。