In this paper, we offer a new framework to measure cross-border supply chain fragmentation and its impact on the global trade elasticity. Firstly, we introduce the supply chain fragmentation ratio that sums the volume of imports by all countries that participate in a particular supply chain. We find that supply chain fragmentation slowed down after 2010 for most goods, but not for services. We demonstrate the importance of using trade and production data at constant prices in measuring fragmentation trends. Secondly, we quantify the impact of fragmentation on the elasticity of trade to world GDP, extending the framework of Bems et al. (Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 101(3):308–312, 2011). We account for trade effects from fragmentation within supply chains as well as asymmetric shocks to final demand. We find that the declining pace of fragmentation accounted for more than a third of the decline in the global trade elasticity after 2010.

在本文中，我们提供了一个衡量跨境供应链碎片及其对全球贸易弹性的影响的新框架。首先，我们介绍了供应链分散率，该比率将参与特定供应链的所有国家的进口量相加。我们发现，大多数商品的供应链碎片化速度在2010年后有所放缓，但服务业却没有。我们证明了使用恒定价格的贸易和生产数据来衡量分散趋势的重要性。其次，我们量化了分散化对贸易弹性对世界GDP的影响，扩展了Bems等人的框架。（Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 101（3）：308-312，2011）。我们考虑了供应链中的分散化以及最终需求的不对称冲击所带来的贸易影响。