Despite considerable interest and debate, it has proven surprisingly difficult to demonstrate a systematic link between technological change and patterns of war and peace. At least part of the challenge may reside in finding the right place to “look” for such relationships. Technological change alters what nations can do to one another (capabilities), but in ways that are typically reflected by deals (diplomatic bargains) rather than actions. We theorize that reconnaissance satellites have revolutionized the use of information gleaned from spying in ways that discourage states from engaging in serious conflicts with one another. We analyze the impact of reconnaissance satellites on high-casualty militarized interstate disputes (MIDS) between dyads from 1950 to 2010. We find that when either the potential aggressor or target in a dyad possess reconnaissance satellites, they are significantly less likely to become involved in serious MIDs. This effect is especially powerful when both states possess reconnaissance satellites.

尽管引起了极大的兴趣和辩论，但事实证明，要证明技术变革与战争与和平模式之间的系统联系是非常困难的。挑战的至少一部分可能在于寻找合适的位置来“寻找”这种关系。技术变革改变了一个国家彼此之间可以做的事情（能力），但是改变的方式通常是交易（外交协议）而不是行动所反映的。我们认为侦察卫星已经彻底改变了从侦察中收集的信息的使用方式，从而阻止了国家进行彼此之间的严重冲突。我们分析了侦察卫星对1950年至2010年两类之间高伤亡率的军事化州际争端（MIDS）的影响。我们发现，当潜在的侵略者或双目标中的目标拥有侦察卫星时，它们参与严重MID的可能性大大降低。当两国都拥有侦察卫星时，这种效果尤其明显。