Using a large panel of credit card accounts, we examine the dynamics of credit card borrowing and repayment in the United States and what these imply for the expected costs of credit card debt to consumers. Our analysis reveals that: (a) credit cards are predominantly used to borrow, (b) card debt is sustained for long periods and balances frequently rise before being repaid, and (c) this debt is potentially more costly than anticipated. Specifically, we document that 82% of outstanding balances are debt and that 70% of this debt accrues to those borrowing continuously for a year or more. The expected annualized cost of an episode of continuous borrowing is 28% of its initial balance, or 13 percentage points. higher than the average annual percentage rate. Moreover, credit scores decline during episodes, further raising the expected cost of borrowing on a card.

中文翻译：

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持续的信用卡借贷

使用大量信用卡账户，我们研究了美国信用卡借贷和还款的动态，以及这些对消费者信用卡债务的预期成本的影响。我们的分析显示：(a) 信用卡主要用于借贷，(b) 信用卡债务长期持续，余额在偿还之前经常增加，(c) 这笔债务的成本可能比预期的要高。具体来说，我们记录了 82% 的未偿余额是债务，而这些债务的 70% 是由那些连续借款一年或更长时间的人累积的。连续借款的预期年化成本为其初始余额的 28%，即 13 个百分点。高于年均百分比。此外，信用评分在情节期间下降，