With its abundant water resources, Scotland has ambitions to become a 'hydro nation'. Hydroclimatological projections indicate that the spatial and temporal distribution of water is likely to change, with parts of Scotland becoming significantly drier. This study, conducted in conjunction with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) looked to identify which regions and sectors may be subject to increased water scarcity pressures in the near-future (2020–2049).

Accounting for more than 99% of (non-public water) surface water abstractions, four key water using sectors were considered: agriculture, aquaculture (finfish), hydropower (with storage; excluding run-of-river (ROR)) and whisky. Drought events, defined by SEPA as a period where daily flow falls below a long-term Q95 threshold for more than 30-days, were profiled in terms of their average frequency, duration and intensity (over a 30-year time slice).

Two hotspots (of drought and abstraction) identified were the rivers Spey and Tay, which represent the centres of the Scotch whisky sector and agriculture respectively. Under climate change, the frequency of drought events could see a two or three-fold increase (median 2–7 additional events). The direction of the change in average drought duration was more uncertain (median change of 0–4 days per event). The results indicated that abstraction exacerbated the pressure. Capturing different sources of uncertainty (parameter and structural), the hydroclimatological data was drawn from two climate ensembles. Overall, the PPE (parameter uncertainty) was found to have narrower uncertainty bounds overall, though the MME (structural uncertainty) was subject to less uncertainty in specific locales in the north. These results highlight the limitation of focussing on one ensemble type/source of ensemble uncertainty across such a diverse domain.

Overall, the paper demonstrates the need for a consistent approach to future water resource planning across Scotland. This planning must consider all sectors consistently and requires cross-sector and cross-disciplinary input and collaboration in order to facilitate wise use of future water resources.

苏格兰拥有丰富的水资源，因此有成为“水力大国”的雄心。水文气候学预测表明，水的空间和时间分布可能会发生变化，苏格兰的部分地区变得更加干燥。这项与苏格兰环境保护局（SEPA）联合进行的研究旨在确定在不久的将来（2020-2049年）哪些地区和部门可能会面临越来越多的缺水压力。

占（非公共用水）地表水提取量的99％以上，考虑了四个主要用水部门：农业，水产养殖（鱼类），水力发电（有水库；不包括河水（ROR））和威士忌。SEPA将干旱事件定义为每日流量低于长期Q95阈值超过30天的时期，并根据其平均频率，持续时间和强度（在30年的时间范围内）进行了剖析。

确定的两个热点（干旱和干旱）是斯佩河和泰河，分别代表了苏格兰威士忌行业和农业的中心。在气候变化下，干旱事件的频率可能会增加两倍或三倍（中位数会增加2–7个事件）。平均干旱持续时间变化的方向更加不确定（每个事件的中位数变化为0至4天）。结果表明，抽象加剧了压力。为捕获不同的不确定性源（参数和结构），水文气候数据来自两个气候集合。总体而言，尽管MME（结构不确定性）在北部特定地区的不确定性较小，但PPE（参数不确定性）总体上具有较窄的不确定性范围。

总体而言，本文证明了在苏格兰未来水资源规划中需要采用一致的方法。该规划必须始终考虑所有部门，并需要跨部门和跨学科的投入与合作，以促进对未来水资源的明智利用。