In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of demand- and supply-side fiscal policies in the small open economy of Slovenia. Simulating the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effectiveness of various categories of public spending and taxes during the period 2020 to 2030, assuming that no crisis occurs. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. This is due to the fact that supply-side measures also increase potential and not only actual GDP. Measures which foster research and development and those which improve the education level of the labour force are particularly effective in this respect. Employment can also be stimulated effectively by cutting the income tax rate and the social security contribution rate, i.e. by reducing the tax wedge on labour income, which positively affects Slovenia’s international competitiveness. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component. We also provide a first simulation of potential effects of the Covid-19 crisis on the Slovenian economy, which is modelled as a combined demand and supply shock.

在本文中，我们分析了斯洛文尼亚小型开放经济体中需求侧和供给侧财政政策的有效性。模拟斯洛文尼亚经济的计量经济学模型 SLOPOL10 模型，假设没有危机发生，我们分析了 2020 年至 2030 年期间各类公共支出和税收的有效性。我们的模拟表明，与纯粹的需求方措施相比，那些同时产生需求和供应方影响的公共支出措施在刺激实际 GDP 和增加就业方面更有效。这是因为供给侧措施也增加了潜力，而不仅仅是实际 GDP。促进研发和提高劳动力教育水平的措施在这方面特别有效。降低所得税率和社会保障缴款率，即减少对劳动收入的税收楔子，也可以有效刺激就业，这对斯洛文尼亚的国际竞争力产生积极影响。因此，成功的稳定政策除了需求方成分外，还应包含供应方成分。我们还首次模拟了 Covid-19 危机对斯洛文尼亚经济的潜在影响，该模拟被建模为需求和供应的综合冲击。