We have developed a probabilistic model to quantify the risks of COVID-19 explosion in Brazil, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Latin America. By explosion, we mean an excessive number of new infections that would overload the public health system. We made predictions from July 12th to Oct 10th, 2020 for various containment strategies, including business as usual, stay at home (SAH) for young and elderly, flight restrictions among regions, gradual resumption of business and the compulsory wearing of masks. They indicate that: if a SAH strategy were sustained, there would be a negligible risk of explosion and the public health system would not be overloaded. For the other containment strategies, the scenario that combines the gradual resumption of business with the mandatory wearing of masks would be the most effective, reducing risk to considerable category. Should this strategy is applied together with the investment in more Intensive Care Unit beds, risk could be reduced to negligible levels. A sensitivity analysis sustained that risks would be negligible if SAH measures were adopted thoroughly.

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在巴西开发用于 COVID-19 定量风险评估的概率模型

我们开发了一个概率模型来量化巴西 COVID-19 爆炸的风险，巴西是拉丁美洲 COVID-19 的中心。我们所说的爆炸式增长是指过多的新感染病例，这将使公共卫生系统超负荷。我们对 2020 年 7 月 12 日至 10 月 10 日的各种遏制策略进行了预测，包括一切照旧、年轻人和老年人留在家中 (SAH)、区域之间的航班限制、逐步恢复营业和强制佩戴口罩。他们指出：如果 SAH 策略持续下去，爆炸的风险可以忽略不计，公共卫生系统也不会超负荷。对于其他的遏制策略，将逐步恢复营业与强制戴口罩相结合的方案将是最有效的，将风险降低到相当大的类别。如果这一策略与对更多重症监护病房床位的投资一起应用，风险可以降低到可以忽略不计的水平。敏感性分析表明，如果彻底采用 SAH 措施，风险将可以忽略不计。