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An Integrated Framework to Estimate Seabird Population Numbers and Trends
Journal of Wildlife Management ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 , DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22026
Moritz Mercker 1 , Nele Markones 2 , Kai Borkenhagen 2 , Henriette Schwemmer 2 , Johannes Wahl 3 , Stefan Garthe 2
Affiliation  

Generating trend and population estimates from bird count data is challenging and a variety of factors have to be taken into account. We present an integrative statistical approach for estimating population numbers and trends for seabirds at sea. The method allows for the integration of bird‐count data from different sources and sampling schemes: offshore observer‐based line transect and digital strip transect surveys and land‐based point counts; the estimation of log‐linear and highly nonlinear trends; the prediction of population numbers for predefined sub‐areas, years, or seasons; and investigations of the effects of various environmental and detection‐related covariates on bird count numbers. We applied the approach to count data for great black‐backed gulls (Larus marinus) in the German part of the North Sea and Baltic Sea from 1990–2016. Count data were collected by observer‐based offshore ship and aerial surveys, offshore digital aerial surveys, and point counts from the shore. The detectability of great black‐backed gulls was affected by the sea state (the condition of the sea surface, characterized by wave height, wave form, foam, and spray) and survey method. Digital and observer‐based aerial surveys detected only 59–77% of the abundance recorded by ship‐based surveys. Great black‐backed gulls are mainly present in German waters in winter, when they account for 3–4% of the European population. Their core distributional areas are mainly in deeper offshore waters where they are relatively dispersed, with several concentrations probably connected to fishing activity. Great black‐backed gulls have undergone substantial declines, with the most pronounced decreases of >90% in the offshore waters of the German part of the North Sea. Breeding numbers at important European breeding sites do not show similar declines, suggesting that the trends observed in the sea areas might indicate a shift in the distribution or habitat use and a decreasing importance of marine areas for European great black‐backed gulls. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译:

估计海鸟数量和趋势的综合框架

从鸟类计数数据生成趋势和种群估计值是具有挑战性的,必须考虑多种因素。我们提出了一种综合统计方法,用于估计海上海鸟的数量和趋势。该方法可以整合来自不同来源和采样方案的鸟类计数数据:基于离岸观察员的线样线和数字带状样线调查以及基于陆地的点数;对数线性和高度非线性趋势的估计;对预定义的子区域,年份或季节的人口数量的预测;以及各种环境和与检测相关的协变量对鸟类数量的影响的调查。我们应用了该方法对大型黑背海鸥(Larus marinus)的数据进行计数),从1990年至2016年在北海和波罗的海的德国部分。计数数据是通过基于观察者的近海船舶和航测,近海数字航空测绘以及来自海岸的点数收集的。大黑背鸥的可检测性受海况(海面状况,以波高,波形,泡沫和喷雾为特征)和测量方法的影响。基于数字和观察员的航空勘测仅发现了基于船载的勘测所记录的丰度的59–77%。大型黑背海鸥主要出现在冬季的德国水域,占欧洲人口的3-4%。它们的核心分布区域主要集中在较深的近海,它们相对分散,可能与捕捞活动有关。大型黑背海鸥已经大幅下降,其中最明显的下降是在北海德国部分的近岸水域中,其下降幅度超过90%。欧洲重要繁殖地的繁殖数量没有出现类似的下降,这表明在海域观察到的趋势可能表明分布或栖息地的使用发生了变化,而海域对欧洲大黑背海鸥的重要性却在下降。©2021作者。这表明,在海域观察到的趋势可能表明分布或栖息地使用发生了变化,而海域对欧洲大黑背海鸥的重要性正在降低。©2021作者。这表明,在海域观察到的趋势可能表明分布或栖息地使用发生了变化,而海域对欧洲大型黑背海鸥的重要性正在降低。©2021作者。Wiley Periodicals LLC代表野生动物协会出版的《野生动物管理杂志》。
更新日期:2021-05-03
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