Higher levels of soil organic matter improve soil water retention, meaning they could mitigate agricultural yield losses from drought. Yet evidence to support such claims is mixed and incomplete. Using data from 12 376 county-years in the United States of America, we show that counties with higher soil organic matter are associated with greater yields, lower yield losses, and lower rates of crop insurance payouts under drought. Under severe drought, an increase of 1% soil organic matter was associated with a yield increase of 2.2 0.33 Mg ha⁻¹ (32.7 bu ac⁻¹) and a 36 4.76% reduction in the mean proportion of liabilities paid. Similar, yet smaller, effects were found for less severe levels of drought and this effect was reduced as soil clay content increased. Confirmatory pathway analyses indicate that this positive association of soil organic matter and yields under drought is partially explained by positive effects of soil organic matter on available water capacity and cation exchange capacity, but that soil organic matter may be imparting yield protection via mechanisms not fully captured by those metrics. Overall, our results suggest soil organic matter predicts yield resilience at regional scales in the United States. We argue that data on soil organic matter should be used in agricultural policy and financial planning, with our analyses providing quantitative evidence of the co-benefits of soil organic matter believed fundamental to advancing soil health and carbon sequestration initiatives.

较高水平的土壤有机质可改善土壤保水性，这意味着它们可以减轻干旱造成的农业产量损失。然而，支持这种说法的证据是混合和不完整的。我们使用美国 12 376 个县年的数据表明，土壤有机质较高的县与干旱条件下的产量更高、产量损失更低以及作物保险支付率更低有关。在严重干旱下，土壤有机质每增加 1%，产量增加 2.2 0.33 Mg ha ^-1 (32.7 bu ac ^-1) 以及已付负债的平均比例减少 36 4.76%。在较轻的干旱水平上发现了类似但更小的影响，并且随着土壤粘土含量的增加，这种影响会降低。验证性途径分析表明，干旱条件下土壤有机质和产量的这种正相关性部分是由于土壤有机质对可用水容量和阳离子交换能力的积极影响，但土壤有机质可能通过未完全捕获的机制赋予产量保护通过这些指标。总的来说，我们的结果表明土壤有机质可以预测美国区域尺度的产量弹性。我们认为土壤有机质数据应用于农业政策和财务规划，