Abstract

Droughts significantly decrease production of crops. Therefore, three drought indices, SPI and SPEI (meteorological drought) and SSI (agricultural drought) have been evaluated for 82 rain gage stations in the Bundelkhand region, India. The non-parametric trend test (the Mann–Kendall test) and the Sen’s slope estimator have been used to analyze the monthly, seasonal, and annual trends for both categories of drought. Monthly and annual trends of rainfall and temperature (both minimum and maximum) have also been analyzed for the study area. The analysis revealed the negative trend of SPI mainly for the northern part of Bundelkhand and especially for monsoon season and for August–September. The trend for precipitation amount is also negative for these months. The minimum temperature has increased (0.03 to 0.07°C/year) more as compared to the maximum temperature (< 0.01°C/year with an insignificant trend). PET was evaluated using the Penman–Monteith method for the further calculation of SPEI. The inverse distance weightage (IDW) method of interpolation has been used to represent the trends on ArcGIS.

中文翻译：

---

基于非参数方法的邦德汉地区气象变量和干旱指数趋势分析

摘要

干旱显着降低了农作物的产量。因此，对印度班德尔坎德地区的82个雨量计站评估了三个干旱指数SPI和SPEI（气象干旱）和SSI（农业干旱）。非参数趋势检验（Mann–Kendall检验）和Sen的斜率估算器已用于分析这两类干旱的月度，季节和年度趋势。研究区域还分析了降雨和温度的月度和年度趋势（最小和最大）。分析表明，SPI的消极趋势主要出现在邦德尔坎德邦的北部，尤其是在季风季节和8-9月。在这几个月中，降水量的趋势也为负。最低温度已提高（0.03至0。比最高温度（<0.01°C /年，趋势不明显）高出07°C /年）。使用Penman–Monteith方法对PET进行评估，以进一步计算SPEI。插值的反距离权重（IDW）方法已用于表示ArcGIS上的趋势。