The present study investigates the convergence process of per-worker output for a panel of 15 countries in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region over the period 1970–2016. Further, the study discusses the dynamic impact of various productive factors (physical capital, human capital and total factor productivity) on per-worker output. In order to estimate the long-run relationship, the paper employs various dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The econometric approach controls for cointegration, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the variables and residuals. The results suggest the presence of cross-sectional dependence and mixed order of integration of the variables. The statistical results of Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests indicate that per-worker output, physical capital stock, human capital stock and total factor productivity tend to have a long-run relationship. The four-step methodology adopted in the present study consistently accepts the conditional β-convergence towards steady state of output per worker. Besides, the paper finds a positive impact of physical capital and total factor productivity on long-run economic growth.

本研究调查了1970-2016年期间中东和北非（MENA）地区15个国家组成的小组的人均产出收敛过程。此外，该研究还讨论了各种生产要素（物质资本，人力资本和全要素生产率）对每个工人产出的动态影响。为了估计长期关系，本文采用了各种动态面板自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型。计量经济学方法控制变量和残差的协整，非平稳性，异质性和横截面依赖性。结果表明存在横截面依赖性和变量积分的混合顺序。Pedroni和Westerlund协整检验的统计结果表明，每个工人的产出，物质资本存量，人力资本存量和全要素生产率往往具有长期的关系。本研究采用的四步法始终如一地接受条件β-向人均产出稳定状态收敛。此外，本文还发现了有形资本和全要素生产率对长期经济增长的积极影响。