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A decision-making methodology for risk-informed earthquake early warning
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering ( IF 9.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-19 , DOI: 10.1111/mice.12670
Gemma Cremen 1 , Carmine Galasso 1, 2
Affiliation  

To maximize the potential of earthquake early warning (EEW) as a credible tool for seismic resilience promotion, it should be combined with next-generation decision-support tools that use advanced risk-based predictions and account for unavoidable malfunctions of the system (i.e., false alarms) to determine whether or not alerts/mitigation actions should be triggered. This work contributes to the required effort by developing a novel end-user-oriented approach for decision making related to very short-term earthquake risk management. The proposed methodology unifies earthquake-engineering-related performance assessment procedures/metrics (for end-user-focused damage and consequence estimation) with multicriteria decision-making tools (to consider end-user preferences toward different types of risks). It is demonstrated for EEW in a hypothetical school building, to specifically investigate the optimal decisions (i.e., “trigger”/“do not trigger” alerts) for a range of earthquake scenarios with varying parameter uncertainties. In particular, it is found that the best action for a given ground-shaking intensity can depend on stakeholder (end-user) preferences.

中文翻译:

风险预警地震的决策方法

为了最大程度地发挥地震预警(EEW)作为可靠的抗震能力提升工具的潜力,应将其与下一代决策支持工具结合使用,后者应使用基于风险的高级预测并解决系统不可避免的故障(例如,错误警报),以确定是否应触发警报/缓解措施。这项工作通过开发一种针对最终用户的新颖方法来制定与极短期地震风险管理相关的决策,从而为所需的工作做出了贡献。拟议的方法将与地震工程相关的性能评估程序/指标(针对最终用户的损害和后果估计)与多准则决策工具(考虑最终用户对不同类型风险的偏好)统一起来。在假设的教学楼中针对EEW进行了演示,该演示针对特定的参数不确定性的一系列地震场景,专门研究了最佳决策(即“触发” /“不触发”警报)。特别是,发现对于给定的撼动强度,最佳措施可能取决于利益相关者(最终用户)的偏好。
更新日期:2021-05-27
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