We investigate whether supply shocks in shrimp aquaculture caused by disease increase prices of wild-caught shrimp in the US Gulf of Mexico, using Gulf prices and US shrimp imports from Ecuador, Thailand, and Indonesia. Many studies have shown that shrimp markets are cointegrated, meaning relative prices tend not to diverge substantially or for long periods. We also find cointegration, and we evaluate a vector error correction model for structural breaks to determine whether the most significant changes in the price relationships coincide with the timing of disease crises in aquaculture. Gulf prices fell steadily throughout the early 2000s because of innovations in shrimp aquaculture, however, early mortality syndrome (EMS) caused a major disruption in aquaculture starting around 2011. Our results indicate that EMS may have precipitated a disturbance to the long-run relationship of our prices, suggesting that disease may have offered temporary benefits to the US shrimp fishery.

中文翻译：

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虾对虾养殖的疾病对水产养殖的影响

我们使用海湾价格和美国从厄瓜多尔，泰国和印度尼西亚进口的虾，调查了疾病引起的虾水产养殖供应冲击是否使美国墨西哥湾的野生对虾价格上涨。许多研究表明，虾市场是共同整合的，这意味着相对价格往往不会长期或长期相差很大。我们还发现了协整关系，并评估了结构断裂的矢量误差校正模型，以确定价格关系中最重大的变化是否与水产养殖疾病危机的发生时间相吻合。由于虾类水产养殖的创新，海湾价格在整个2000年代初一直稳步下降，但是，早期死亡率综合症（EMS）导致2011年左右水产养殖的重大中断。