Over the past 15 years, productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on information and communication technology assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in productivity. We argue that time lags are the most important reason for the slow emergence of the productivity effects from digital transformation. This paper provides evidence that underneath the slowing productivity growth rates at the macro level, signs of structural improvements can be detected. In the United States most of the positive contribution to productivity growth is coming from the digital producing sector. The Euro Area and the United Kingdom show larger productivity contributions from the most intensive digital-using sectors, although the United Kingdom also had a fairly large number of less intensive digital-using industries which showed productivity declines. We also find that increases in innovation competencies of the workforce are concentrated in industries showing faster growth in labor productivity, even though more research is needed to identify causality. Finally, we speculate that as the recovery from the COVID-19 recession gets underway the potential for significant productivity gains from digital transformation in the medium term is larger than during the past 15 years.

中文翻译：

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如何避免再次错过生产力复苏

在过去的 15 年中，发达经济体的生产率增长显着放缓，引发了新数字经济的生产率悖论——即企业在信息和通信技术资产和数字服务方面的支出增加而没有显着增加的概念生产率。我们认为，时间滞后是数字化转型的生产力效应缓慢出现的最重要原因。本文提供的证据表明，在宏观层面生产率增长率放缓的情况下，可以检测到结构性改善的迹象。在美国，对生产力增长的大部分积极贡献来自数字生产部门。欧元区和英国显示出来自最密集的数字使用部门的更大生产力贡献，尽管英国也有相当多的不太密集的数字使用行业显示生产力下降。我们还发现，劳动力创新能力的提高集中在劳动生产率增长较快的行业，尽管需要更多的研究来确定因果关系。最后，我们推测，随着从 COVID-19 衰退中复苏的开始，中期数字化转型带来的生产力显着提升的潜力将大于过去 15 年。我们还发现，劳动力创新能力的提高集中在劳动生产率增长较快的行业，尽管需要更多的研究来确定因果关系。最后，我们推测，随着从 COVID-19 衰退中复苏的开始，中期数字化转型带来的生产力显着提升的潜力将大于过去 15 年。我们还发现，劳动力创新能力的提高集中在劳动生产率增长较快的行业，尽管需要更多的研究来确定因果关系。最后，我们推测，随着从 COVID-19 衰退中复苏的开始，中期数字化转型带来的生产力显着提升的潜力将大于过去 15 年。