In response to the political turmoil surrounding the recent refugee crisis, destination countries swiftly implemented new immigration and asylum policies. Are such countercrisis policies effective in mitigating political instability by reducing anti-immigrant backlash and support for radical-right parties? The present study exploits two surveys that were coincidentally fielded during significant policy changes, sampling respondents right before and immediately after the change. I employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the short-term causal effect of the policy change on public opinion within a narrow window of the sampling period. The findings show that both Swedish border controls and the EU–Turkey agreement significantly reduced public opposition to immigration in Sweden and Germany, respectively. In Germany, support for the AfD party also decreased following the new policy. Public opinion time trends suggest that the policy effects were short lived in Sweden but durable in Germany. These effects are similar across different levels of proximity to the border and are accompanied by increasing political trust and a sense of government control over the situation. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of border controls on international public opinion, as well as for assessing the electoral effect of policy responses to global refugee crises.

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重获控制权？对难民危机的政策反应的政治影响

为了应对围绕最近难民危机的政治动荡，目的地国迅速实施了新的移民和庇护政策。这种反危机政策是否能通过减少反移民的反弹和对激进右翼政党的支持来有效缓解政治不稳定？本研究利用了在重大政策变化期间巧合进行的两项调查，在变化之前和之后立即对受访者进行抽样。我采用回归不连续设计来确定政策变化对公众舆论的短期因果影响，在抽样周期的狭窄窗口内。调查结果表明，瑞典边境管制和欧盟-土耳其协议分别显着减少了瑞典和德国公众对移民的反对。在德国，新政策出台后，对 AfD 党的支持也有所减少。舆论时间趋势表明，政策效果在瑞典是短暂的，但在德国是持久的。这些影响在靠近边境的不同程度是相似的，并伴随着政治信任的增加和政府对局势的控制感。这些发现有助于理解边境管制对国际舆论的影响，以及评估政策应对全球难民危机的选举效果。这些影响在靠近边境的不同程度是相似的，并伴随着政治信任的增加和政府对局势的控制感。这些发现有助于理解边境管制对国际舆论的影响，以及评估政策应对全球难民危机的选举效果。这些影响在靠近边境的不同程度是相似的，并伴随着政治信任的增加和政府对局势的控制感。这些发现有助于理解边境管制对国际舆论的影响，以及评估政策应对全球难民危机的选举效果。