Do motion picture incentives nudge productions to film in an adopting state, increase budgets, or hire more cast and filmmakers? Or do they simply subsidize productions that would have occurred regardless? Using California’s Film and Television Tax Credit Program, the author exploits incentives given out by lottery to answer these questions. The author finds that 19% of films would have filmed in California even without a tax incentive, but that the offering of an incentive increased the probability of a film being made in California by 16 percentage points. Both production budgets and the number of cast and filmmakers increased in response to the offering of a tax incentive, and, in California specifically, they increased budget spent by 267% and the number of cast and filmmakers hired by 123%. The program also had differential impacts based on film type, with only nonindependents increasing budgets and the number of cast and filmmakers in California.

电影激励措施是否会推动作品在采用状态下拍摄，增加预算或雇用更多的演员和制片人？还是他们只是补贴将要发生的生产？作者使用加利福尼亚州的电影和电视税收抵免计划，利用彩票提供的激励措施来回答这些问题。作者发现，即使没有税收激励措施，也有19％的电影本来可以在加利福尼亚州拍摄的，但是提供激励措施会使在加利福尼亚拍摄电影的可能性提高了16个百分点。由于提供了税收优惠，制作预算以及演员和制片人的数量均增加了，特别是在加利福尼亚州，他们将预算支出增加了267％，雇用的演员和制片人的数量增加了123％。