This study proposed a method for transportation agencies to efficiently and accurately formulate or revise rules for the movement of railway transport while ensuring safety under adverse conditions. Determining such a method in general requires trial-and-error experimentation, which consumes large amounts of time and money. We used the uniform experiment (UE) and generalized linear autoregression (GLAR) to establish our method. Based on it, a series of numerical models were proposed to examine the association between the operational indices of safety (derailment coefficient and rate of wheel unloading) and such factors as the type of wagon, cargo weight, partial loading (covering longitudinal and lateral offset), line condition, and operating speed. The models were used to determine the worst transportation conditions. The results of analysis showed the following: 1) the effect of the speed of operation on the safety indices followed a parabolic law, those of cargo weight and part loading followed a linear law, the type of wagon and line condition exhibited no clear regularity, and some of these factors have an interactive influence. 2) A combination of the UE and GLAR helped deal with the complex multivariate process using the fewest multilevel experiments to accurately determine the most adverse conditions for railway freight transportation. The proposed method provided reference schemes for governmental agencies to study and revise freight management regulations.

这项研究提出了一种方法，使运输机构可以有效，准确地制定或修订铁路运输规则，同时确保在不利条件下的安全性。通常，确定这种方法需要反复试验，这会浪费大量的时间和金钱。我们使用统一实验（UE）和广义线性自回归（GLAR）来建立我们的方法。在此基础上，提出了一系列数值模型，以检验安全运行指标（失效系数和车轮卸载率）与货车类型，货物重量，部分装载（覆盖纵向和横向偏移）等因素之间的关联。 ），线路条件和运行速度。这些模型用于确定最恶劣的运输条件。分析结果表明：1）作业速度对安全性指标的影响遵循抛物线规律，货物重量和零件负荷的影响遵循线性规律，货车类型和线路状况没有明确的规律性，并且其中一些因素具有交互作用。2）UE和GLAR的组合使用最少的多层实验来准确地确定铁路货运的最不利条件，从而帮助处理了复杂的多元过程。该方法为政府机构研究和修订货运管理规定提供了参考方案。旅行车的类型和行车状况没有明确的规律性，其中一些因素具有交互作用。2）UE和GLAR的组合使用最少的多层实验来准确地确定铁路货运的最不利条件，从而帮助处理了复杂的多元过程。该方法为政府机构研究和修订货运管理规定提供了参考方案。旅行车的类型和行车状况没有明确的规律性，其中一些因素具有交互作用。2）UE和GLAR的组合使用最少的多层实验来准确地确定铁路货运的最不利条件，从而帮助处理了复杂的多元过程。该方法为政府机构研究和修订货运管理规定提供了参考方案。