Abstract

There has been a long debate about whether exchange rate depreciation promotes output growth or not. In this context, we use Iran’s foreign exchange market which has had large fluctuations in recent years. Since the exchange rate influence on industries’ activity through different mechanisms, we examine the exchange rate effects in the industry level. To do this, the Iranian manufacturing industries data at 4-digit ISIC level are used from 2011 to 2017. The results of GMM dynamic panel data estimations show that the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on average, are positive in the non-crisis periods. But this relationship does not remain valid in a currency crisis conditions. Accordingly, depreciation does not have any positive effects during the currency crisis. Also, estimation results indicate the exchange rate volatility negatively affects industrial production in all periods. Our findings confirm that due to different characteristics of industries, the effects of exchange rate on production vary among them. So, export orientation, access to the preferential rate and higher level of raw material inventory amplify the positive effect of the real depreciation while import dependency and a higher level of final goods inventory fade the effect and turn into negative in some industries.

中文翻译：

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汇率差异对生产增长的影响：以伊朗工业为例

摘要

关于汇率贬值是否促进产出增长一直存在着长期的争论。在这种情况下，我们使用近年来波动较大的伊朗外汇市场。由于汇率通过不同的机制对产业活动的影响，因此我们考察了汇率在产业层面的影响。为此，使用了2011年至2017年4位数ISIC级别的伊朗制造业数据。GMM动态面板数据估计的结果表明，在非危机时期，实际汇率平均贬值的影响为正。 。但是这种关系在货币危机条件下仍然无效。因此，在货币危机期间，贬值不会产生任何积极影响。还，估计结果表明，汇率波动在所有时期都对工业生产产生负面影响。我们的发现证实，由于行业特征的不同，汇率对生产的影响在其中也有所不同。因此，出口导向，享受优惠税率和较高的原材料库存水平放大了实际贬值的积极作用，而对进口的依赖和较高的最终商品库存水平则减弱了这种影响，并在某些行业变成了负面的影响。