Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores whether a more comprehensive treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates, and global value chains) are significant drivers of CPI inflation in a cross-section of countries, and their role has increased over the last decade, particularly the role of nonfuel commodity prices. These global factors, however, do less to improve our understanding of core and wage inflation. Key results are robust to using a less-structured trend-cycle decomposition instead of a Phillips curve framework, with the set of global variables more important for understanding the cyclical component of inflation over the last decade but not the underlying slow-moving inflation trend. Domestic slack still plays a role for all the inflation measures, although globalization has caused some "flattening" of this relationship, especially for CPI inflation. Although CPI inflation is increasingly determined abroad, core and wage inflation are still largely domestic processes.

在过去十年中，通货膨胀的动态很难解释。本文探讨了对全球化的更全面的处理是否会有所帮助。自2008年危机以来，全球CPI通胀已变得更加同步，但核心通胀和工资通胀却变得不那么同步。全球因素（包括商品价格，世界松懈，汇率和全球价值链）是导致多个国家CPI通胀的重要驱动力，并且在过去十年中，它们的作用有所增加，尤其是非燃料商品价格的作用。但是，这些全球因素对增进我们对核心和工资通胀的理解作用不大。关键结果对于使用结构较少的趋势周期分解而不是菲利普斯曲线框架是稳健的，全球变量集对于理解过去十年中通货膨胀的周期性成分更为重要，但对于潜在的缓慢的通货膨胀趋势而言则更为重要。尽管全球化已经导致这种关系有些“扁平化”，特别是对于CPI通胀，但国内的宽松仍在所有通胀措施中发挥着作用。尽管消费者价格指数通货膨胀在国外越来越确定，但核心和工资通货膨胀仍主要是国内过程。