This article fills a gap in theories of forced migration. We present a new model, motivated by specific features of forced migration during a conflict which do not feature in existing migration models. We incorporate the relative deprivation hypothesis and a new “restoration” hypothesis in order to better explain forced migration as a two-stage process, which starts with conflict and, in some cases, forced displacement in the first stage and continues with emigration in the second stage. A particular feature of our model is that it predicts self-selection of highly skilled individuals into international migration as a result of conflict, since the “restoration” hypothesis assumes that individuals with higher income before conflict are most under pressure to restore their previous income through emigration. The model used in this article to analyse conflict-induced migration could also motivate further modelling to better match the characteristics of migration induced by natural disasters (which are expected to increase in the future as a result of climate change) as well as by large development projects.

本文填补了强迫迁移理论的空白。我们提出了一个新模型，该模型受冲突期间强迫迁移的特定功能的启发，而现有迁移模型中没有这些功能。我们将相对剥夺假说和新的“恢复”假说结合在一起，以便更好地将强迫迁徙解释为一个分为两个阶段的过程，该过程始于冲突，在某些情况下，第一阶段为强迫流离失所，第二阶段则继续为移徙阶段。我们模型的一个特别之处在于，它可以预测由于冲突而导致的高技术人才会自动选择参加国际移徙，因为“恢复”假说假设冲突前收入较高的个人承受着通过恢复原先收入的最大压力。移民。