We explore the stock market and option implied volatility response of the oil and gas industry to four policy events associated with the Paris Agreement and the election of Donald Trump. Our results show that the signing of the Paris Agreement had a large negative impact for the Oil and Gas sector (CAAR −8.4%), with Exploration and Production (CAAR −12.2%) and Drilling (CAAR −10.5%) most severely affected. This is further supported by an increase in implied volatility and by a structural break in option trader sentiment around the signing of the agreement. In general, the Paris Agreement had a much stronger impact on firms that had primarily U.S.-focused operations. Contrary to expectations, the election of Donald Trump and the announced withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement negatively affected some sub-sectors (integrated and transport) and the sector overall. We attribute this to (1) Trump's policies supporting domestic production (benefitting unlisted independent producers at the expense of listed competitors with import and international assets), and (2) on “We Are Still In” efforts by U.S. states, cities and companies to continue to meet Paris Agreement goals. Overall, our results indicate that investors are pricing current policies when examining climate risk and that, in this respect, the Paris agreement trumped Trump.

我们探讨股市和期权隐含与巴黎协定和唐纳德·特朗普的选举相关的四个政策事件石油和天然气行业的波动性反应。我们的结果表明，《巴黎协定》的签署对石油和天然气行业（CAAR −8.4％）产生了很大的负面影响，其中勘探与生产（CAAR −12.2％）和钻探（CAAR −10.5％）受到的影响最大。隐含波动率的增加以及协议签署前后期权交易者情绪的结构性突破，进一步证明了这一点。总体而言，《巴黎协定》对主要经营美国业务的公司产生了更大的影响。与预期相反，唐纳德·特朗普的选举和美国宣布退出 《巴黎协定》的规定对某些次级行业（综合和运输）和整个行业产生了负面影响。我们将其归因于（1）特朗普支持国内生产的政策（以进口和国际资产为代价，使未上市的独立生产商受益，而牺牲了上市竞争对手的利益），以及（2）美国各州，城市和公司在“我们仍在努力”中继续实现《巴黎协定》的目标。总体而言，我们的结果表明，投资者在审查气候风险时正在对当前政策进行定价，就此而言，巴黎协议胜过特朗普。各州，城市和公司继续实现《巴黎协定》的目标。总体而言，我们的结果表明，投资者在审查气候风险时正在对当前政策进行定价，就此而言，巴黎协议胜过特朗普。各州，城市和公司继续实现《巴黎协定》的目标。总体而言，我们的结果表明，投资者在审查气候风险时正在对当前政策进行定价，就此而言，巴黎协议胜过特朗普。