This essay argues for the importance of error as an organizing concept in the management of hazardous technical systems to high levels of reliability and safety. The concept of “error” has been essential to the development of high reliability organizations (HROs). As practiced in HROs, error management has also been an important strategy for the management of uncertainty. “Uncertainty” has been conceived by some analysts as a condition that can convey little or no reliable information about its own boundary conditions or its specific threat to the operation of complex systems. The argument here is that uncertainty is differentiated and specified in HROs and provides important information in relation to error. Uncertainty does not, in the special context of HROs, end the possibility and practice of reliable management. In fact, error in HROs can be a starting point for the further analysis of ways in which uncertainty itself can be managed reliably. But the argument offered here does not mean that uncertainty does not challenge reliability in other settings. The COVID-19 pandemic is offered as an example of how uncertainties may invalidate even the application of "reliability" as a performance standard in certain domains of management and policy.

中文翻译：

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可靠性、不确定性和错误管理：COVID-19 时代的新视角

本文论证了错误作为危险技术系统管理中的一个组织概念对于高水平的可靠性和安全性的重要性。“错误”的概念对于高可靠性组织 (HRO) 的发展至关重要。正如在 HRO 中实践的那样，错误管理也是管理不确定性的重要策略。一些分析家认为“不确定性”是一种条件，它可以传达很少或没有关于其自身边界条件或其对复杂系统运行的特定威胁的可靠信息。这里的论点是不确定性在 HRO 中被区分和指定，并提供与错误相关的重要信息。在 HRO 的特殊背景下，不确定性不会终止可靠管理的可能性和实践。实际上，HRO 中的错误可以作为进一步分析可靠管理不确定性的方法的起点。但这里提供的论点并不意味着不确定性不会挑战其他环境中的可靠性。以 COVID-19 大流行为例，说明不确定性如何使甚至将“可靠性”作为绩效标准在某些管理和政策领域的应用无效。