While it is natural to assume that contradiction between alleged witness testimonies to some event disconfirms the event, this generalization is subject to important qualifications. I consider a series of increasingly complex probabilistic cases that help us to understand the effect of contradictions more precisely. Due to the possibility of honest error on a difficult detail even on the part of highly reliable witnesses, agreement on such a detail can confirm H much more than contradiction disconfirms H. It is also possible to model scenarios where we strongly suspect ahead of time that one source has copied another. In these cases, contradiction on a detail due to witness error can even confirm H by disconfirming collusion or copying. Finally, still more complex scenarios show that indirect confirmation, as opposed to exact agreement, provides the “best of both worlds,” simultaneously disconfirming suspected copying while permitting the statements of both sources to be true.

虽然可以自然地假设某个事件的被指控证人证词之间的矛盾证明了该事件，但是这种概括有一定的重要条件。我考虑了一系列越来越复杂的概率案例，这些案例有助于我们更准确地理解矛盾的影响。由于即使是高度可靠的证人也可能在困难的细节上产生诚实的错误，因此在这样的细节上达成一致可以使H的确定远多于矛盾的不确定性H。也可以对我们强烈怀疑的场景进行建模：一个来源复制了另一个。在这些情况下，由于证人错误导致细节上的矛盾甚至可以通过断言串通或抄袭来确认H。最后，更复杂的情况表明，间接确认（而不是完全同意）