Leveraging point-level spatial data from the Phoenix area, we consider the role of nearby organizations as contextual factors that amplify or reduce reoffending risk among juvenile offenders after court completion. Using survival models, we examine whether residential proximity to seven types of organizations impacts risk of recidivism, net of neighborhood disadvantage and offender characteristics. Aggregate neighborhood disadvantage was not associated with reoffending risk and organizational findings were mixed. Low-level offenders with more total organizations nearby had a higher risk of new property offenses, while the risk of drug and violent reoffending nearly doubled for diversion youth residing near police facilities or detention centers. Individual demographics and prior offense histories remained the strongest, most consistent predictors of juvenile recidivism.

利用凤凰城地区的点级空间数据，我们认为附近组织的作用是作为背景因素，可以放大或减少法庭完成后少年罪犯的再犯风险。使用生存模型，我们检查居住在七种类型的组织附近是否对累犯风险，邻里不利和犯罪者特征产生影响。总体邻里劣势与再度冒犯风险无关，并且组织调查结果参差不齐。在组织总数更多的低级别犯罪者附近，新犯罪的风险较高，而居住在警察设施或拘留中心附近的转移青少年的毒品和暴力犯罪的风险几乎增加了一倍。个人人口统计资料和过往的犯罪记录仍然是最强的，