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Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability
Nature Geoscience ( IF 18.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-15 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00698-0
Ulf Büntgen , Otmar Urban , Paul J. Krusic , Michal Rybníček , Tomáš Kolář , Tomáš Kyncl , Alexander Ač , Eva Koňasová , Josef Čáslavský , Jan Esper , Sebastian Wagner , Matthias Saurer , Willy Tegel , Petr Dobrovolný , Paolo Cherubini , Frederick Reinig , Miroslav Trnka

Europe’s recent summer droughts have had devastating ecological and economic consequences, but the severity and cause of these extremes remain unclear. Here we present 27,080 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen (δ13C and δ18O) isotopes from 21 living and 126 relict oaks (Quercus spp.) used to reconstruct central European summer hydroclimate from 75 bce to 2018 ce. We find that the combined inverse δ13C and δ18O values correlate with the June–August Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1901–2018 at 0.73 (P < 0.001). Pluvials around 200, 720 and 1100 ce, and droughts around 40, 590, 950 and 1510 ce and in the twenty-first century, are superimposed on a multi-millennial drying trend. Our reconstruction demonstrates that the sequence of recent European summer droughts since 2015 ce is unprecedented in the past 2,110 years. This hydroclimatic anomaly is probably caused by anthropogenic warming and associated changes in the position of the summer jet stream.



中文翻译:

超出共同时代背景变化的近期欧洲干旱极端事件

欧洲最近的夏季干旱已经造成了毁灭性的生态和经济后果,但这些极端事件的严重程度和原因仍不清楚。在这里,我们展示了 27,080 次每年解析和绝对过时的树木年轮稳定碳和氧(δ 13 C 和 δ 18 O)同位素测量值,这些同位素来自 21 棵活橡树和 126 棵残橡树 ( Quercus spp.),用于重建公元前 75 年以来欧洲中部的夏季水文 气候到2018 我们发现 δ 13 C 和 δ 18 O 的组合逆值与 1901 年至 2018 年 6 月至 8 月的 Palmer 干旱严重程度指数相关为 0.73 ( P  < 0.001)。公元 200、720 和 1100 年左右的洪积 ,以及公元 40 年、590 年、950 年和 1510 年以及 21 世纪的干旱 叠加在千年干旱趋势上。我们的重建表明,自 2015 年以来欧洲最近的夏季干旱序列 在过去 2110 年中是前所未有的这种水文气候异常可能是由人为变暖和夏季急流位置的相关变化引起的。

更新日期:2021-03-15
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