Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to portray the valuation of financial investments as mental time travel.

Design/methodology/approach

In a series of thought investments, $1 invested in an investment fund is mentally projected forward in time and then discounted back to the present – with no objective time passing. The thought investments feature symmetric valuation (in which discount rates exactly match projection rates) and asymmetric valuation (in which discount rates and projection rates happen to differ). They show how asymmetric valuation can result in differences between the current personal value and market value of an investment and, by way of real-world illustration, between a closed-end investment fund's net asset value and its market value. The authors explore possible reasons for asymmetric valuation.

Findings

Thought investments illustrating mental time travel can be used to help understand both financial investment valuation generally and, more specifically, established explanations of the closed-end investment fund puzzle. The authors show how different expectations, different perceptions of time and risk and different risk and time preferences might help determine value.

Originality/value

There are vast literatures on prospection, discounting and future-orientated or intertemporal decision-making. The authors’ innovation is to illustrate how these mental activities might combine to facilitate financial investment valuation. In particular, the authors show that a low personal discount rate could be a consequence of a shortened perception of future time and vice versa.

中文翻译：

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心理时间旅行和金融投资的估值

目的

本文的目的是将金融投资的估值描述为心理时间旅行。

设计/方法/方法

在一系列思想投资中，投资于投资基金的 1 美元在心理上会及时预测，然后折算回现在——没有客观的时间流逝。思想投资的特点是对称估值（贴现率与预测率完全匹配）和非对称估值（贴现率和预测率恰好不同）。他们展示了非对称估值如何导致投资的当前个人价值和市场价值之间的差异，以及通过现实世界的说明，封闭式投资基金的净资产价值与其市场价值之间的差异。作者探讨了不对称估值的可能原因。

发现

说明心理时间旅行的思想投资可以用来帮助理解一般的金融投资估值，更具体地说，可以帮助理解封闭式投资基金难题的既定解释。作者展示了不同的期望、对时间和风险的不同看法以及不同的风险和时间偏好如何有助于确定价值。

原创性/价值

有大量关于展望、贴现和面向未来或跨期决策的文献。作者的创新在于说明这些心理活动如何结合起来促进金融投资估值。特别是，作者表明，低个人贴现率可能是对未来时间感知缩短的结果，反之亦然。