Purpose

Cost of construction of residential properties as well as its subsequent rent trends remain a major challenge to stakeholders in the property rental markets of emerging economies. This study examined the relationship between housing construction costs and house rents fluctuations in Osogbo, Nigeria, to provide information for informed investment decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conducted a survey, where three sets of questionnaires were administered on building contractors; estate surveyors and valuers and private residential property owners. The data required comprise the estimated average construction costs and average market rents for two and three-bedroom bungalows in the study area from 2008 to 2018. These data were respectively sourced from all the 15 firms of building contractors and 25 firms of estate surveyors and valuers in Osogbo, Nigeria. Stratified random sampling was employed to select 180 property owners from three medium-density residential districts of Osogbo. Secondary data on macroeconomic variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools.

Findings

The authors found a significant positive relationship (0.749) between construction costs and house rents trends; both variables maintained ascending trends. Construction costs and house rents inflation rates exhibited random fluctuations with the former having a higher mean inflation rate (10.47%). However, the difference was not statistically significant (p-value = 0.317 > 0.05). Respondents identified consumer price index (CPI) inflation among other macroeconomic variables as the strongest predictor of both construction costs and house rents fluctuations. However, evidence from further analysis of the time series suggested otherwise.

Practical implications

The result confirms construction cost as one of the vital supply factors of the housing market, which is often pass through to house rents. The positive relationship between construction costs and house rents trends should trigger new development which, will, in turn, allow rental housing investments to expand into new areas with prospects for profits that could be earned by domestic and foreign investors.

Originality/value

This study to the best knowledge of the researchers is the first to relate housing construction cost to house rent in Osogbo, Nigeria; thereby adding to the body of knowledge in this field.

中文翻译：

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新兴房地产市场的住房建设成本和房租波动：以尼日利亚奥索博为例

目的

住宅物业的建造成本及其随后的租金趋势仍然是新兴经济体物业租赁市场利益相关者的主要挑战。本研究考察了尼日利亚奥索博的住房建设成本与住房租金波动之间的关系，为明智的投资决策提供信息。

设计/方法/方法

作者进行了一项调查，其中对建筑承包商进行了三套问卷调查；房地产测量师和估价师以及私人住宅业主。所需数据包括2008年至2018年研究区两居室和三居室洋房的估计平均建造成本和平均市场租金。这些数据分别来自所有15家建筑承包商和25家房地产测量师和估价师公司在尼日利亚奥索博。采用分层随机抽样，从奥索博的三个中等密度住宅区中抽取了 180 名业主。宏观经济变量的二手数据来自尼日利亚中央银行。收集的数据使用描述性和推理性统计工具进行分析。

发现

作者发现建筑成本和房屋租金趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系 (0.749)；两个变量均保持上升趋势。建筑成本和房屋租金通胀率呈现随机波动，前者的平均通胀率较高（10.47%）。然而，差异没有统计学意义（p值 = 0.317 > 0.05）。受访者将其他宏观经济变量中的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 通胀确定为建筑成本和房屋租金波动的最强预测指标。然而，来自对时间序列的进一步分析的证据表明并非如此。

实际影响

研究结果证实，建筑成本是住房市场的重要供给因素之一，它往往会传递给房屋租金。建筑成本与房屋租金趋势之间的正相关关系应该会引发新的发展，反过来，这将允许出租房屋投资扩展到新的领域，并有可能为国内外投资者赚取利润。

原创性/价值

据研究人员所知，这项研究是第一个将尼日利亚奥索博的住房建设成本与房屋租金联系起来的研究；从而增加了该领域的知识体系。