Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of corporate tax aggressiveness on future stock price crash. It also tests the impact of corporate tax aggressivness in predicting stock price crash for a two-year forecast window.

Design/methodology/approach

The study sample consisted of 1,169 firm-years observations. The multivariate analysis uses three measures of stock price crash risk, as a dependent variable. The key variable is tax aggressiveness lagged by one period (one year) as all independent variables. As a robustness check, this paper uses alternate measures of earning management and a longer forecast window (two years) to predict stock price crash risk.

Findings

Tax aggressiveness activity is positively related to a firm-specific future stock price crash. Moreover, corporate tax aggressiveness predicts stock price crash risk for a long forecast window (two years). The findings are robust to a number of checks and have several policy implications.

Practical implications

The cost of continuing to accumulate bad news will be greater than the cost of revealing them. Thus, board of directors should encourage disclosure in order to reveal private news and then, to increase the amount of firm-specific information in returns. Another point is that tax aggressiveness behavior implies a risk to be perceived by the market as socially irresponsible, and may harm the firm reputation. This fact leads, in terms of portfolio management, to deter investment in firm-equity. Therefore, Investors should be cautious about the different risks of corporate tax aggressiveness.

Social implications

The accounting system in France, as in most European countries, relies upon codified rules and government requirement. Thus, our results provide some evidence of the effectiveness of the French laws and regulations in preventing indirectly earnings management from affecting stock price crash risk.

Originality/value

French companies are among the heavily taxed in Europe which makes France a particularly suitable context for studying tax aggressiveness issues. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the french context, that document a signifcant and positive relation between tax aggressiveness and future crash risk. It focuses on the important role of corporate tax planning as a means of withholding bad news and its consequences in inflating stock prices.

中文翻译：

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公司税收积极性是否可以解释未来的股价崩盘？来自法国的经验证据

目的

这项研究旨在检验公司税收积极性对未来股价暴跌的影响。它还在为期两年的预测窗口中测试了公司税收积极性对预测股票价格暴跌的影响。

设计/方法/方法

该研究样本包括1,169个公司年的观察结果。多元分析使用股票价格崩溃风险的三种度量作为因变量。关键变量是税收积极性，与所有自变量相比，滞后一个时期（一年）。作为稳健性检查，本文使用了盈余管理的替代方法和更长的预测范围（两年）来预测股价崩溃的风险。

发现

税收积极性活动与企业特定的未来股价暴跌呈正相关。此外，公司税收积极性可以预测很长一段时间（两年）内的股票价格崩溃风险。这些发现对许多检查都是可靠的，并且具有若干政策含义。

实际影响

继续积累坏消息的代价将大于揭露它们的代价。因此，董事会应鼓励披露，以披露私人新闻，然后增加回报中公司特定信息的数量。另一点是，税收激进行为意味着市场认为社会不负责任的风险，并且可能损害公司声誉。从投资组合管理的角度来看，这一事实会阻止对公司股权的投资。因此，投资者应谨慎对待公司税收积极性的不同风险。

社会影响

像大多数欧洲国家一样，法国的会计制度也依赖编纂规则和政府要求。因此，我们的结果提供了一些证据，证明了法国法律法规在防止间接收益管理影响股价崩溃风险方面的有效性。

创意/价值

法国公司属于欧洲的重税国家之一，这使法国成为研究税收积极性问题的特别合适的背景。据我们所知，这项研究是法国背景下的首次研究，该研究证明了税收积极性与未来崩溃风险之间的显着正相关。它着重介绍了公司税收筹划作为隐瞒坏消息及其对股票价格上涨造成的后果的重要作用。