Purpose

Scoring is a widely used, long-established, and universally applicable method of measuring risks, especially those that are difficult to quantify. Unfortunately, the scoring method is often misused in real estate practice and underestimated in academia. The purpose of this paper is to supplement the literature with general rules under which scoring systems should be designed and validated, so that they can become reliable risk instruments.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper combines the rules, or axioms, for coherent risk measures known from the literature with those for scoring instruments. The result is a system of rules that a risk scoring system should fulfil. The approach is theoretical, based on a literature survey and reasoning.

Findings

At first, the paper clarifies that a risk score should express the variation of a property’s yield and not of its quality, as it is often done in practice. Then the axioms for a coherent risk scoring are derived, e.g. the independence of the risk factors. Finally, the paper proposes procedures for valid and reliable risk scoring systems, e.g. the out-of-time validation.

Practical implications

Although it is a theoretical work, the paper also focuses on practical applicability. The findings are illustrated with examples of scoring systems.

Originality/value

Rules for risk measures and for scoring systems have been established long ago, but the combination is a first. In this way, the paper contributes to real estate risk research and risk management practice.

中文翻译：

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一致的房地产风险评分规则

目的

计分是一种广泛使用，历史悠久且普遍适用的衡量风险的方法，尤其是那些难以量化的风险。不幸的是，计分方法经常在房地产实践中被滥用，而在学术界却被低估了。本文的目的是通过设计和验证评分系统的一般规则来补充文献，以使它们可以成为可靠的风险工具。

设计/方法/方法

本文将有关文献中已知的连贯风险度量的规则或公理与计分工具相结合。结果是建立了风险评分系统应遵循的规则体系。该方法是理论的，基于文献调查和推理。

发现

首先，本文阐明，风险评分应该表示房地产收益率的变化，而不是其质量的变化，而这通常是在实践中所做的。然后得出用于连贯的风险评分的公理，例如，风险因素的独立性。最后，本文提出了有效和可靠的风险评分系统的程序，例如超时验证。

实际影响

尽管这是一项理论性的工作，但本文也侧重于实用性。研究结果以评分系统为例进行说明。

创意/价值

风险度量和评分系统的规则已经建立很久了，但是这种组合是第一个。这样，本文有助于房地产风险研究和风险管理实践。