Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of crime on apartment prices for Hamburg, Germany, for the years 2012 to 2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a panel data setting with fixed effects estimators and temporal lags to moderate the endogeneity concerns related to crime. The authors consider the effect of total crime, violent and property crime and some sub-categories of crime.

Findings

The estimates show that it takes two to three years for prices to react, with the longer run elasticity reaching −0.12 for total crime, −0.15 for property crime and −0.06 for violent crime. The elasticities are much larger in high-crime areas (−0.22 for total crime, −0.28 and −0.09 for property and violent crime) and elevated also in low-income areas.

Social implications

The finding that property crime matters more in terms of quantitative impact for housing values than violent crime provides reasonable grounds for rethinking the resource allocation of public spending on crime clearance and prevention in Germany. Far more emphasis on preventing property crime appears in order and especially so in the lower income or higher crime areas, which are significantly more affected by crime and in particular property crime than those in high income or low crime areas.

Originality/value

The estimates for Hamburg provide the first detailed results of the impact of crime on real estate prices in Germany. It is also the first study for Continental Europe using panel data.

中文翻译：

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犯罪对德国汉堡公寓价格的影响

目的

本研究的目的是研究 2012 年至 2017 年犯罪对德国汉堡公寓价格的影响。

设计/方法/方法

作者使用具有固定效应估计量和时间滞后的面板数据设置来缓和与犯罪相关的内生性问题。作者考虑了总犯罪、暴力犯罪和财产犯罪以及犯罪的一些子类别的影响。

发现

估计表明，价格需要两到三年的时间才能做出反应，长期弹性为总犯罪率为-0.12，财产犯罪为-0.15，暴力犯罪为-0.06。高犯罪率地区的弹性要大得多（总犯罪率为-0.22，财产和暴力犯罪为-0.28 和-0.09），低收入地区的弹性也较高。

社会影响

财产犯罪对住房价值的定量影响比暴力犯罪更重要，这一发现为重新思考德国用于清除和预防犯罪的公共支出的资源分配提供了合理的理由。对预防财产犯罪的重视程度要高得多，尤其是在低收入或高犯罪地区，与高收入或低犯罪率地区相比，这些地区受犯罪特别是财产犯罪的影响要大得多。

原创性/价值

对汉堡的估计提供了犯罪对德国房地产价格影响的第一个详细结果。这也是欧洲大陆首次使用面板数据进行的研究。