Purpose

This paper aims to explore the potential of Bioeconomy as a pathway for sustainable transformation of economies of East Africa. Although East Africa region has shown good growth, this has been accompanied by rising concerns about sustainability, as population growth is putting significant strain on biodiversity undermining capacity for future growth. The search for a new growth pathways points to leveraging bioeconomy. To get insights on the viability of this pathway, this study simulated several scenarios to help inform a regional bioeconomy strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

To get insights into the viability of this pathway, a conceptual model to capture demand and supply drivers was constructed and simulations were conducted by using the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform.

Findings

The analysis points to the potential of a bioeconomy-driven economic strategy to drive transformation. However, the simulation points to the fact that if not well thought out, it can also be costly in terms of environment, and indeed such a strategy can lead to a disaster in the long run. It is also clear that having a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean being self-sufficient in agricultural production. If saving the forests or increasing forest cover means agricultural imports rise this should be fine. Also, a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean development objectives are fully met.

Research limitations implications

The IFs platform is a general platform and thus cannot capture the specific enablers for a Bioeconomy. So strategy development should use the result as starting point.

Practical implications

Also, a strong bioeconomy does not necessarily mean that development objectives are fully met. A bioeconomy strategy should be part of package of strategy to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.

Originality/value

While Bioeconomy is increasingly gaining attention, many countries have proposed strategies the analysis tends to be qualitative. No quantitative simulation of this new economic pathways has yet been conducted in East Africa. The IFs platform is a general simulation platform; therefore, the parameters available in the model cannot fully capture what Bioeconomy is. This analysis needs to be supplemented by a qualitative scenarios analysis.

中文翻译：

---

为东非的生物经济期货建模

目的

本文旨在探讨生物经济作为东非经济可持续转型途径的潜力。尽管东非地区表现出良好的增长，但与此同时，人们对可持续性的关注也在增加，因为人口增长对生物多样性造成了巨大压力，破坏了其未来增长的能力。寻找新的增长途径指向利用生物经济。为了深入了解该途径的可行性，本研究模拟了几种方案，以帮助指导区域生物经济战略。

设计/方法/方法

为了深入了解该途径的可行性，构建了一个捕获需求和供应动因的概念模型，并使用国际期货（IF）建模平台进行了模拟。

发现

分析指出了由生物经济驱动的经济战略推动转型的潜力。但是，模拟指出了这样一个事实，即如果没有深思熟虑，那么就环境而言它也可能代价高昂，而从长远来看，这种策略的确可能导致灾难。同样显而易见的是，拥有强大的生物经济并不一定意味着农业生产自给自足。如果节约森林或增加森林覆盖率意味着农业进口增加，那应该没问题。同样，强大的生物经济并不一定意味着完全实现发展目标。

研究局限性

IFs平台是一个通用平台，因此无法捕获生物经济的特定推动者。因此，策略制定应以结果为起点。

实际影响

同样，强大的生物经济并不一定意味着完全实现发展目标。生物经济战略应成为确保可持续和包容性增长的一揽子战略的一部分。

创意/价值

尽管生物经济越来越受到关注，但许多国家提出了战略分析，这种分析往往是定性的。东非尚未对这种新的经济途径进行定量模拟。IFs平台是一个通用的仿真平台；因此，模型中可用的参数无法完全反映出什么是生物经济。该分析需要定性情景分析的补充。