Purpose

The study mainly aims to examine the currency misalignment of Turkish lira and evaluate if it has an impact on economic growth of Turkey.

Design/methodology/approach

It relies on Johansen cointegration technique for measuring currency misalignment relying on single-equation approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to evaluate how misalignment affects economic growth. The sample period covers from 1980 to 2016.

Findings

The study identifies that terms of trade, relative productivity differences, net foreign asset, investment and trade openness determine the equilibrium REER of Turkey, and the degree of currency misalignment is observed at a substantial level. The outcome of the ARDL approach suggests that higher currency misalignment reduces economic growth. Turning to the separate impacts of undervaluation and overvaluation, while the former falters economic growth, the later promotes it, a finding contrary to the conventional expectation. Therefore, the use of exchange rate as a policy variable is a critical concern to avoid misalignment for sustained economic growth.

Practical implications

The anti-growth effect of undervaluation and misalignment is an indication of redistribution of income which could be verified by examining the aggregate consumption behavior of the economy in response to RER movements.

Originality/value

The impacts of currency undervaluation and overvaluation on economic growth of Turkey have been studied in a number of time-series studies. But there is no documented study on the role of currency misalignment on Turkish economic growth. This study is the first that examines how the economic growth of Turkey is influenced by currency misalignment together with the impact of undervaluation and overvaluation.

中文翻译：

---

货币错位对经济增长有影响吗？– 来自土耳其的证据

目的

该研究主要旨在考察土耳其里拉的货币错位情况，并评估其是否对土耳其经济增长产生影响。

设计/方法/方法

它依赖于约翰森协整技术来衡量货币错位，依靠单方程方法和自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 方法来评估错位如何影响经济增长。样本期为 1980 年至 2016 年。

发现

该研究确定，贸易条件、相对生产率差异、净外国资产、投资和贸易开放度决定了土耳其的均衡 REER，并且观察到的货币错配程度处于相当大的水平。ARDL 方法的结果表明，较高的货币错配会降低经济增长。转向低估和高估的单独影响，前者阻碍经济增长，后者促进经济增长，这一发现与传统预期相反。因此，使用汇率作为政策变量是避免持续经济增长失调的关键问题。

实际影响

低估和错位的反增长效应是收入再分配的迹象，可以通过检查经济体对 RER 变动的总消费行为来验证。

原创性/价值

许多时间序列研究都研究了货币低估和高估对土耳其经济增长的影响。但没有关于货币错位对土耳其经济增长的作用的文献研究。本研究首次探讨了土耳其的经济增长如何受到货币错位以及低估和高估的影响。