The objective of the article is to examine the fiscal sustainability of the Indian central government’s finances in the era of rule-based fiscal policy. Asymmetric budgetary adjustment process and revenue–expenditure nexus are also analysed in this article by employing threshold autoregressive models/momentum threshold autoregressive models. Findings of the article reveal emerging issues in fiscal sustainability in India. The central government’s expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) has been falling continuously, leaving little room for further pruning. The current scenario of negative growth in central government’s revenue as a share of GDP, if not reversed, can become the Achilles heel of government finances in India.

JEL Classification: E62, H600, H500, C32

本文的目的是研究基于规则的财政政策时代印度中央政府财政的财政可持续性。本文还通过采用阈值自回归模型/动量阈值自回归模型来分析非对称预算调整过程和收支关系。本文的发现揭示了印度财政可持续性方面的新问题。中央政府的支出占国内生产总值的比重一直在下降，几乎没有进一步修剪的余地。当前的中央政府收入占GDP负增长的情景，如果不扭转的话，可能成为印度政府财政的致命弱点。

JEL分类： E62，H600，H500，C32