The objective of this study is to investigate the sources of output growth and their convergence in the Middle East and North African countries over the period 1970–2017. Towards this end, the study employs Levin et al. (2002, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 108, pp. 1–24), Fisher-type (Choi, 2001, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 20, pp. 249–272) and Im et al. (2003, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 115, pp. 53–74) panel unit root tests and Pedroni (2004, Econometric Theory, vol. 20, pp. 597–625), Kao (1999, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 90, pp. 1–44) and Johansen–Fisher cointegration tests. After estimating the production function using random effects estimator to obtain the share of physical capital in output, we employed standard growth accounting approach to measure and decompose growth of total output into contributions from growth in physical capital, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP). Further, the study discusses the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of real output per worker and its sources (physical capital per worker, human capital and TFP). The statistical results of the article can be summarized as follows: The contribution of physical capital to output growth is found to be positive and higher than the contribution of labour, whereas the contribution of TFP was negative across the region with the exception of Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. However, when the contribution of human capital is netted out, the contribution of TFP becomes negative in all the countries except for Tunisia. In addition, the study found no clear evidence of deterministic convergence in output per worker (but stochastic convergence), human capital and factor productivity. However, the statistical results provide overwhelming evidence for stochastic and deterministic convergence in physical capital per worker.

JEL Classification: O4, O40, O47

本研究的目的是调查1970-2017年期间中东和北非国家的产出增长来源及其趋同。为此，该研究采用了Levin等人的方法。（2002年，《计量经济学杂志》，第108卷，第1-24页），费舍尔式（崔伊，2001年，《国际货币与金融杂志》，第20卷，第249–272页）和Im等。（2003年，《计量经济学杂志》，第115卷，第53–74页）面板单位根检验和Pedroni（2004年，《计量经济学理论》，第20卷，第597-625页），花王（1999年，《计量经济学》杂志），卷。90，第1-44页）和Johansen-Fisher协整检验。在使用随机效应估算器估算了生产函数以获得实物资本在产出中所占的份额之后，我们采用了标准增长核算方法来衡量和分解总产出的增长，将其转化为实物资本，劳动力，人力资本和全要素生产率的增长的贡献（ TFP）。此外，该研究还讨论了每名工人的实际产出及其来源（每名工人的物质资本，人力资本和全要素生产率）的随机性和确定性趋同的存在。本文的统计结果可总结如下：发现实物资本对产出增长的贡献为正且高于劳动的贡献，而除埃及以外，整个区域的全要素生产率的贡献为负，摩洛哥，突尼斯和土耳其。但是，当人力资本的贡献被扣除后，除突尼斯以外的所有国家的全要素生产率的贡献都为负。此外，该研究没有明确证据表明每名工人的产出（但是随机趋同），人力资本和要素生产率具有确定性趋同。然而，统计结果为每个工人的实物资本的随机性和确定性趋同提供了压倒性的证据。

JEL分类： O4，O40，O47