This study performs a meta-analysis of the effect of taxes on economic growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. A challenge with synthesizing tax estimates is that they measure different things. This follows because studies differ in the government budget constraints implied by their regression specifications. To address this problem, we use a taxonomy from Gemmell, Kneller, and Sanz that predicts the growth effects from various tax-spending-deficit combinations. We apply this taxonomy to 979 estimates from forty-nine studies of tax effects in OECD countries. Our headline result is that a 10 percent increase in taxes is associated with a decrease in annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of approximately −0.2 percent when bundled as part of a TaxNegative tax-spending-deficit combination. The same tax increase is associated with an increase in annual GDP growth of approximately 0.2 percent when part of a TaxPositive fiscal policy package. All of our data, output, and programming code are publicly available at https://osf.io/ 6 bfgx/.

中文翻译：

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经合组织国家的税收和经济增长：元分析

本研究对税收对经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 国家经济增长的影响进行了元分析。综合税收估算的一个挑战是它们衡量不同的东西。这是因为研究在其回归规范所隐含的政府预算约束方面存在差异。为了解决这个问题，我们使用 Gemmell、Kneller 和 Sanz 的分类法来预测各种税收-支出-赤字组合的增长效应。我们将此分类法应用于 49 项 OECD 国家税收影响研究的 979 项估计值。我们的主要结果是，当作为 TaxNegative 税收支出赤字组合的一部分捆绑在一起时，税收增加 10% 会导致年度国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长率下降约 -0.2%。作为税收积极的财政政策方案的一部分，同样的税收增加与年 GDP 增长约 0.2% 相关。我们所有的数据、输出和编程代码都可以在 https://osf.io/6 bfgx/ 上公开获得。