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Civilian targeting in African conflicts: A poor actor’s game that spreads through space
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH ( IF 3.713 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-08 , DOI: 10.1177/0022343320961150
Piotr Lis 1 , Michael Spagat 2 , Uih Ran Lee 3
Affiliation  

Armed conflict actors frequently target civilian populations. Thus, an improved understanding of such behaviour could pave the way to reducing it. We use the Civilian Targeting Index (CTI) and a broad array of geo-referenced data to investigate the spatio-temporal and economic dynamics of civilian targeting by conflict actors in Africa. Two main insights are generated. First, the civilian targeting behaviour of African non-state conflict actors is strongly influenced by the behaviour of other proximate actors. In particular, non-state actors tend to increase their civilian targeting after nearby non-state actors have done so. Possible mechanisms to explain such spatial spillovers include emulation and retaliation. Second, a negative relationship between economic activity and civilian targeting exists and applies to both state and non-state actors. In addition, CTIs of non-state actors tend to increase with population density, the geographical spread of their conflict activity and conflict duration. State actors have higher average CTI’s than non-state actors do but the gap between the two actor types tends to close during long-duration conflicts.

中文翻译:

非洲冲突中的平民瞄准:一个通过太空传播的糟糕演员的游戏

武装冲突行为体经常以平民为目标。因此,更好地了解此类行为可为减少此类行为铺平道路。我们使用平民瞄准指数 (CTI) 和广泛的地理参考数据来调查非洲冲突参与者瞄准平民的时空和经济动态。产生了两个主要见解。首先,非洲非国家冲突行为体的平民瞄准行为受到其他邻近行为体行为的强烈影响。特别是,在附近的非国家行为者这样做之后,非国家行为者往往会增加他们的平民目标。解释这种空间溢出的可能机制包括模仿和报复。其次,经济活动与针对平民的目标之间存在负相关关系,并且适用于国家和非国家行为者。此外,非国家行为者的 CTI 往往随着人口密度、其冲突活动的地理分布和冲突持续时间而增加。国家行为者的平均 CTI 高于非国家行为者,但在长期冲突期间,两种行为者类型之间的差距往往会缩小。
更新日期:2021-02-08
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