Many scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and intrastate conflict onset. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for conflicts between countries. This article studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics. We examine whether climate variability influences the onset and militarization of interstate diplomatic conflicts and whether these effects are similar across issues that involve sovereignty claims for land (territory) or water (maritime, river). We focus on two theoretical mechanisms: scarcity (abundance) and uncertainty. We measure these concepts empirically through climate deviation (e.g. droughts/floods, heat waves/cold spells) and climate volatility (greater short-term variance in precipitation/temperature). Analyses of issue claims in the Western Hemisphere and Europe (1901–2001) show that greater deviations and volatility in climate conditions increase risks for new diplomatic conflicts and militarization of ongoing issues and that climate change acts as a trigger for revisionist states.

许多学者研究了气候变异性与州内冲突爆发之间的关系。尽管这些文献中的实证研究结果参差不齐，但我们对气候变化如何增加国与国之间冲突风险的了解却很少。本文使用问题的方法研究世界政治中的气候变异性。我们研究了气候变化是否会影响州际外交冲突的发生和军事化，以及在涉及土地（领土）或水（海洋，河流）主权主张的问题中，这些影响是否相似。我们关注两种理论机制：稀缺性（丰度）和不确定性。我们通过气候偏差凭经验测量这些概念（例如干旱/洪水，热浪/冷气）和气候波动性（降水/温度的短期短期波动较大）。对西半球和欧洲（1901-2001年）问题声明的分析表明，气候条件的更大偏差和波动加剧了新的外交冲突和正在进行的问题军事化的风险，并且气候变化是修正主义国家的诱因。