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Propaganda and Protest in Autocracies
Journal of Conflict Resolution ( IF 3.211 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 , DOI: 10.1177/0022002720975090
Erin Baggott Carter 1 , Brett L. Carter 1
Affiliation  

Does propaganda reduce the rate of popular protest in autocracies? To answer this question, we draw on an original dataset of state-run newspapers from thirty countries, encompassing six languages and over four million articles. We find that propaganda diminishes the rate of protest, and that its effects persist over time. By increasing the level of pro-regime propaganda by one standard deviation, autocrats have reduced the odds of protest the following day by 15%. The half-life of this effect is between five and ten days, and very little of the initial effect persists after one month. This temporal persistence is remarkably consistent with campaign advertisements in democracies.



中文翻译:

专制政权的宣传与抗议

宣传会降低独裁统治下民众抗议的速度吗?为了回答这个问题,我们使用了来自三十个国家的国有报纸的原始数据集,其中包含六种语言和四百万种文章。我们发现宣传降低了抗议的速度,而且其影响随着时间的流逝而持续。通过将亲政权的宣传水平提高一个标准差,独裁者将第二天的抗议几率降低了15%。这种作用的半衰期为五至十天,一个月后几乎没有初始作用持续。这种时间上的持久性与民主国家的竞选广告非常一致。

更新日期:2020-12-10
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