Abstract

Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This article reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are more likely to make a change, more satisfied with their decisions, and happier six months later than those whose coin toss instructed maintaining the status quo. This finding suggests that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.

中文翻译：

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正面或反面：抛硬币对重大人生决定和随后幸福的影响

摘要

人们在面对重要决策时是否做出了明智的选择，所知甚少。本文报道了一项大规模的随机田间实验，其中难以做出决定的研究对象掷硬币来帮助确定他们的选择。对于重要的决定（例如辞职或终止一段感情），抛硬币的人比做出抛硬币的人更容易做出改变，对自己的决定更满意，并且比抛硬币的人更快乐六个月指示保持现状。这一发现表明，人们在面对改变生活的选择时可能会过于谨慎。