Abstract

We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample’s employees, become financially distressed. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and for firms belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, whereas the correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership is weak. (JEL G01, G32, G33)Received July 8, 2020; editorial decision July 20, 2020 by Editor Uday Rajan.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19冲击和股权短缺：来自意大利的公司级证据

摘要

我们使用80,972家意大利公司的代表性样本来预测由COVID-19锁定引发的利润下降和股票短缺。为期3个月的锁定期导致利润总额每年下降，约占GDP的10％，而雇佣了8.8％样本员工的样本公司中有17％陷入财务困境。中小企业，COVID-19之前杠杆高的企业以及属于制造业和批发贸易领域的企业的困境更加频繁。上市公司陷入困境的可能性较小，而困境率与家族企业所有权之间的相关性较弱。（JEL G01，G32，G33）于2020年7月8日收到；编辑决定Uday Rajan于2020年7月20日做出决定。