We propose a new approach to mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis (SEH). We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time and the human dies when the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the survival energy (SE) process to zero. This study assumes that SE follows a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process and defines the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is a fictitious construct, we illustrate that this assumption has the potential to yield a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family yields surprisingly good predictions for future mortality rates.

中文翻译：

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人为什么会死？生存能量假设下队列明智死亡率预测的结构方法

我们提出了一种新的死亡率预测方法生存能量假说（SEH）. 我们假设一个人出生时具有初始能量，该能量随时间随机变化，当能量消失时，人就会死亡。然后，死亡时间由生存能量（SE）过程的第一次击中时间表示为零。本研究假设 SE 遵循时间非均匀扩散过程，并定义了死亡率函数，即 SE 过程的第一个击球时间分布函数。尽管 SEH 是一个虚构的结构，但我们说明这一假设有可能产生一个良好的累积死亡概率参数族，并且该参数族对未来死亡率产生了令人惊讶的良好预测。