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Estimating the maximum earthquake magnitude in the Iranian Plateau
Journal of Seismology ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s10950-021-09998-9
Milad Kowsari , Hamed Ghazi , Andrzej Kijko , Hamid Reza Javadi , Elham Shabani

The Iranian Plateau has been subjected to destructive earthquakes throughout its history. Reliable assessment of the seismic hazard in this earthquake-prone region is therefore essential. Our study focuses on estimating the maximum earthquake magnitude as one of the main parameters of seismic hazard analysis. We implemented two quantitative approaches, namely, probabilistic and deterministic. The probabilistic method allows combining the historical (i.e. incomplete) and the instrumental parts of a catalogue with different levels of completeness and considers the uncertainties in earthquake magnitude determination. In this study, we used a unified, declustered, and complete catalogue of earthquakes in Iran, covering the period from the fourth century BC to 2019. We calculated the maximum possible magnitudes for hundreds of grid points by using the seismicity data in a 200-km radial region around each grid point. The maximum possible earthquake was observed to vary between 6.0 and 8.2, and the highest values were found in the Alborz-Azarbayejan seismotectonic province, Kopeh-Dagh, central east Iran, Makran, and the southeast Zagros. The lowest mmax values were found in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Platform, Esfahan-Sirjan region, and the Dasht-e-Kavir Desert in central Iran. As a second part to this study, we calculated the maximum credible earthquakes for 1103 identified major faults by using five empirical magnitude-scaling relationships. Our results were consistent with both the observed earthquakes and the seismic potential of the various seismogenic zones of Iran. The study results can be used in future seismic hazard analyses and have fundamental implications for mitigating seismic risk in Iran.



中文翻译:

估计伊朗高原的最大地震烈度

伊朗高原在整个历史中一直遭受破坏性地震。因此,必须对地震多发地区进行可靠的地震危险评估。我们的研究重点是估计最大地震震级,作为地震灾害分析的主要参数之一。我们实施了两种定量方法,即概率方法和确定性方法。概率方法允许将具有不同完整性级别的目录的历史部分(即不完整部分)和工具部分进行组合,并考虑地震震级确定中的不确定性。在这项研究中,我们使用了伊朗地震的统一,分类和完整目录,涵盖从公元前四世纪到2019年的时期。我们使用每个栅格点周围200 km径向区域中的地震数据,计算了数百个栅格点的最大可能震级。观察到最大可能地震在6.0和8.2之间变化,最高地震发生在Alborz-Azarbayejan地震构造省,Kopeh-Dagh,伊朗中东部,Makran和东南Zagros。最低的在波斯湾,阿拉伯平台,Esfahan-Sirjan地区和伊朗中部的Dasht-e-Kavir沙漠中发现了m个最大值。作为本研究的第二部分,我们通过使用五个经验量级比例关系,计算了1103个已确定的主要断层的最大可信地震。我们的结果与观察到的地震以及伊朗各个地震发生带的地震潜力都一致。该研究结果可用于未来地震危险性分析,并对减轻伊朗的地震风险具有根本意义。

更新日期:2021-03-12
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